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Thread: How much unit loss before you raise alarm signals

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by Iwantmoney View Post
    How much unit loss do you have before you raise suspicion of either ou are doing something wrong and or there’s cheating or mistake on dealer part or whatever?

    I am currently 80 units down in about total 2 days of playing is this normal?
    You should study cheating methods and get suspicious if you see something that is actually suspicious. Like marked cards in play. Losing money isn't a very reliable way to test if a game is rigged.
    The Cash Cow.

  2. #15


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    According to Wizard of odds however the odds of losing or winning 50 units in a 1000 hands, assuming you can win or lose one only one unit in each hand, is one in 100000. And 1000 hands is reached in one and half day session.

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by Iwantmoney View Post
    According to Wizard of odds however the odds of losing or winning 50 units in a 1000 hands, assuming you can win or lose one only one unit in each hand, is one in 100000. And 1000 hands is reached in one and half day session.
    That overstates things a little. Blackjack is approximately equivalent to a game with 1.3 to 1 payoff so there's more variance there than an even-money coin-flip type game. That's just assuming flat-betting.

    Additionally there are a lot of people playing blackjack and some of them will be experiencing horrible swings with mathematical certainty. Despite that certainty if this is happening to you then you are likely to think you are being cheated - whereas to everyone else you are an outlier in a sample.

  4. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iwantmoney View Post
    How much unit loss do you have before you raise suspicion of either ou are doing something wrong and or there’s cheating or mistake on dealer part or whatever?

    I am currently 80 units down in about total 2 days of playing is this normal?
    Use a one-sided statistical significance test with a = 0.01 (not 0.05, since allegations of casino cheating are very serious and, at least in Western countries, highly unlikely), X = -80 (your net loss in units), µ = your expected edge in units per hand given your counting system and house rules and assuming perfect play, s = your standard deviation in units per hand for the game given the house rules, and n = number of hands you've played over the past two days. µ and s can be well-approximated using simulation software, and n can be calculated using the formula n = (hands per hour) x (number of hours played).

    The Central Limit Theorem says you must calculate P(Z < ( -80 - nµ ) / ( s*sqrt(n) ) ), where Z is the standard normal distribution. If this probability is less than 0.01, then check your numbers to make sure they're accurately recorded. If they are, then you may need to consider revisiting your assumption that you're playing imperfectly, since that's still more likely than casino cheating.

    https://www.statskingdom.com/110MeanNormal1.html
    Last edited by JohnGalt007; Yesterday at 02:25 PM.

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by Iwantmoney View Post
    I am currently 80 units down in about total 2 days of playing is this normal?
    Not necessarily normal, but certainly mathematically possible.

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