Taking insurance then surrendering

[Tank4u2]

I am new to AP, been practicing for a few months and have a few hours in the casino. When I play 3:2, DAS, LS, NRSA 6 or 8 deck does this scenario draw a lot of attention? I have a 16 or 15 vs A. At a +3 I take insurance. Dealer does not have blackjack. The next right play is to surrender. I know splitting 10s draws a lot of attention, but does taking insurance for a hand like 15 or 16, then surrendering typically draw a lot of attention from the dealer or pit? Or am I just over thinking it.

[G Man]

Depends on the stakes you are playing and the way you sell the whole thing.
There's a way to do it...

[Freightman]

Hmm. New to AP and asking that question is a sign of very good progress. So, you’re playing surrender after peek. Clearly, you’re playing hi lo, so let’s take first a superficial approach and then (as G Man says - and the way you sell the whole thing) take a deeper dive.

EV maximizing says break even is True +3.0. Definitely insure your 19’s and 20’s. Insuring your 15’s 16’s means you’re either very dumb or have a few smarts upstairs. For myself, I’ll play inferior? 3.0 and not insure. The higher the true count gets, the more likely I will insure those lousy hands. For that matter, I might insure 19’s and 20’s below true 3.0. The determining factor is a little concept I call QTC - Quality of True Count (a story for another day).

Now, you’ve lost the insurance bet and you now surrender. The smarter pit boss will determine you’re either very good or very bad. The dumber pit boss will just think you’re stupid. Either way, think about making some dumb plays in neutral or negative counts. Keep in mind that some “dumb” plays are actually very good plays - won’t bore you with examples.

Yes, it will draw some attention so some gleeful hootin and hollerin may be in order. The higher the stakes the more the play will be looked at. As you’re fairly new, you’re probably playing lower stakes, so sell it and don’t worry about it.

Edit - make that a whoopin and a whoppin - more gleefully corresponds to the blazing saddles link
https://youtu.be/SkQ8_Xr_zVY?si=PXV8p4a-jPIsMMrS

[Tank4u2]

I appreciate your response. I am playing at low stakes 10 or 15 min, but that is what I need to do to keep for now to keep ROR under 1.5% with my bankroll.

What is a good reference for determining the EV? I have BJA3. It has charts with EV for every hand, but it only shows EV for basic strategy plays (does not show EV for surrender). Is there a good reference to see the EV for each hand at different counts?

Hmm. New to AP and asking that question is a sign of very good progress. So, you’re playing surrender after peek. Clearly, you’re playing hi lo, so let’s take first a superficial approach and then (as G Man says - and the way you sell the whole thing) take a deeper dive.

EV maximizing says break even is True +3.0. Definitely insure your 19’s and 20’s. Insuring your 15’s 16’s means you’re either very dumb or have a few smarts upstairs. For myself, I’ll play inferior? 3.0 and not insure. The higher the true count gets, the more likely I will insure those lousy hands. For that matter, I might insure 19’s and 20’s below true 3.0. The determining factor is a little concept I call QTC - Quality of True Count (a story for another day).

Now, you’ve lost the insurance bet and you now surrender. The smarter pit boss will determine you’re either very good or very bad. The dumber pit boss will just think you’re stupid. Either way, think about making some dumb plays in neutral or negative counts. Keep in mind that some “dumb” plays are actually very good plays - won’t bore you with examples.

Yes, it will draw some attention so some gleeful hootin and hollerin may be in order. The higher the stakes the more the play will be looked at. As you’re fairly new, you’re probably playing lower stakes, so sell it and don’t worry about it.

Edit - make that a whoopin and a whoppin - more gleefully corresponds to the blazing saddles link
https://youtu.be/SkQ8_Xr_zVY?si=PXV8p4a-jPIsMMrS

[G Man]

What is a good reference for determining the EV? I have BJA3. It has charts with EV for every hand, but it only shows EV for basic strategy plays (does not show EV for surrender). Is there a good reference to see the EV for each hand at different counts?

No sure what you mean by "does not show EV for surrender" ? EV for surrendering is always -50%
The best reference for EV at different counts for all hands is: THE HI-LO CARD COUNTING SYSTEM: A VISUAL GUIDE TO INDEX PLAY
This is a complement to The Hi-Lo Card Counting System: A Complete Guide to Index Play

[Freightman]

I appreciate your response. I am playing at low stakes 10 or 15 min, but that is what I need to do to keep for now to keep ROR under 1.5% with my bankroll.

What is a good reference for determining the EV? I have BJA3. It has charts with EV for every hand, but it only shows EV for basic strategy plays (does not show EV for surrender). Is there a good reference to see the EV for each hand at different counts?

I will simplify your query with this short short easy to remember answer.
Surrender, used properly, will add about 1/3 to your win rate.

[DSchles]

Surrender, used properly, will add about 1/3 to your win rate.

Depends, of course, on the game, spread, etc. But for 4.5/6, 1-12 or 1-16, S17, DAS vs. S17, DAS, LS, the gains are more than 50%. See BJA3, p. 232.

Don