How much unit loss do you have before you raise suspicion of either ou are doing something wrong and or there’s cheating or mistake on dealer part or whatever?
I am currently 80 units down in about total 2 days of playing is this normal?
How much unit loss do you have before you raise suspicion of either ou are doing something wrong and or there’s cheating or mistake on dealer part or whatever?
I am currently 80 units down in about total 2 days of playing is this normal?
Its really simple to lose 80 units in one session, let alone over 2. I once had a suspicion of cheating.played numerous sessions over 1.5 yearsOriginally Posted by Iwantmoney
Winning a fair amount of dough - seldom losing. Then, I had 5 straight sessions of 5k losses (200 units per session). I certainly had my suspicions.
As always, the suspicion is always, somewhat foolishly, one-sided in these situations. Win 80 units in two days and "it's owed to you." Or, "I'm supposed to win, right?" Lose the same amount, and it's "Have I forgotten how to play properly?" or "Am I being cheated?" etc.
If you win more than you're entitled to, I've never, ever heard a player ask, "What went wrong here?" But lose it and the sky is falling in.
In fact, what you're supposed to win in two days, as opposed to what you might lose, are almost the same thing. In situations like this, your mind is not your friend!
Don
Hello, Don. May I ask a question regarding how you calculate SCORE?
To simplify my question, assume I play head to head to dealer and TC remains small/negative so I bet table minimal $10 in the whole session and I play 100 rounds and won $20. Of the 100 rounds, I got to split to 2 hands three times. Only one time I got to double. Basically I risked $1040 on this session. What should I calculate SCORE, is it 20/100, 20/103 or 20/104? Thanks in advance.
None of the above. What you won in actual play has no bearing on SCORE, which is a theoretical calculation equal to the EV^2/SD^2, the latter of which are based on very specific standardized assumptions outlined in
BJA3, pp. 155 and 159.
Don
You need to get over this paranoia and also learn what kind of variance is typical and can be expected. A true AP does not even begin to think of such things just for losing 80 units (assuming you mean minimum bets and not average bets).
This is going to happen many many times. If this is going to be your reaction then card counting may very well not be for you. The possible variance involved is way more massive than that.
Generally speaking, it is advised to have 1000x the min unit to be mostly safe. But even that amount comes with some amount of risk of ruin. You lost 80 units or maybe "average bets." This is a big "shrug...oh well, that wasn't very good" for any AP who knows what he's doing. It certainly isn't a panic moment or a time to wonder if anything else was wrong. It is incredibly typical variance.
If it is really 80 "average bets" and maybe your average bet was 2 or 3 min units then that is a slightly worse losing stretch of course. Dropping 20% of your 1000 unit bankroll definitely isn't fun. But unfortunately it happens.
Short term variance can be far more significant than many new counters imagine.
Cheating is something you should be aware of generally and isn't much to do with session loss. The cheat has to be really dumb to be so obvious that it will show up in a session.
Conversely consider the big winner who is cheated. They are very unlikely to be suspicious when they win 297 units instead of 312 (say).
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