1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
Did you find this post helpful?
Yes |
No
Hey Night_Rider!
First of all I want to tell you that I am a beginner like you, only with a little more time of study. I must confess you were getting on my nerves, that's why the little joke back there. I don't like seeing a grown man in such a defensive mode, that's all. Sorry for that.
Now, I see that you are back to reason, so I would like to give you my two cents... from beginner to beginner.
Although you could learn counting cards in ANY order you'd like, I do think there is a clear natural progression to it. See if you can follow my reasoning:
1 - You got to know what the game is first. The Internet alone is enough to teach you a lot about the game. You probably know how to play already, but there are many different rules that affect your advantage, so it is nice to understand all of them, so that you can choose your game accordingly. I find it very useful to watch videos at Youtube. This one shows the dealer's modus operandi, which I find useful for a number of reasons https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmM3CjMPuz8;
2 - Once you understand your options while playing the game, it is natural to ask yourself "Should I hit or stay?", "Should I double or split?", etc... so, in order to find those answers, you got to study Basic Strategy. You could either learn a compromise strategy or, specially if you know what game you will be playing most of the time, you could learn the specific strategy corresponding to your game. In a different thread, SeriousPlayer pointed us to a link which shows exactly your loss by playing different games with the wrong strategy http://www.blackjackincolor.com/penetration13.htm;
3 - You are going to be doing a lot of things at the same time while playing, so I would suggest you memorize close to flawlessly Basic Strategy first, but that's just me, a beginner like you who is telling you that, so take it with a grain of salt. Once you do that, you may begin actually counting cards. The first thing is to decide on the count (I guess you chose Hi-Lo, me too). Then you memorize the card tags of your count. That's a quirky thing this one, because you gotta learn the card tags in a way that you look at a 9 or an 8 and you don't even see it! You ignore it because its tag is ZERO! You look at a 2 or 3 and you got to see +1! That's crazy! What is even more crazy is that you got to see it as a 3 as well because you need to know your hand totals. That is not easy or automatic. And that's another reason you should learn BS by heart first - you will get used to look at an 8,7 hand and see a 15. It takes time. I can't do it with all the hands yet and I've been at it since the beginning of the year! OK, maybe I am slow, but you get my point. So, learn the card values first!
4 - Now you count them! You master the running count! You flip through a deck of cards and you keep a running count, meaning you sum each consecutive card tag to your previous total. In Hi-Lo you will end a deck in the same way you begun - a ZERO count. When I say master, I mean MASTER! And I tell you I am far from it still. I can count down a deck in 15 seconds, but that has little to do with when I am counting cards while playing the dealer, making perfect BS decisions, talking to my wife with the TV on, estimating decks remaining and making true count calculations. Note that I haven't even included index play deviations yet! Master the running count! Both fast and slow. I practice counting with CV app for Android while running at a treadmill. I only increase speed (running speed) if I count down 6 decks with a given deal speed. When I can't run faster, I increase deal speed. Sometimes I keep the running speed constant and increase the deal speed progressively. I err much more when deal speed is slow than when it is fast. Your mind is allowed to think other things and you forget the count. So, master the RC!
5 - A true count is obtained (in most cases) by dividing the running count by your estimation of decks remaining to be played. So what do you think it is more natural to learn: The end-result first? The denominator? The numerator? Sorry, but for me it is really natural to first learn the numerator (the RC) then the denominator (decks remaining) and then the end-result, the True Count (TC). So, now you would be aiming to learn deck estimation. I am still at this phase, but of course, there is an overlapping in our learning curve, so I am indeed making true count calculations already. And sometimes I even still get the RC wrong. But I believe it is the right time to learn deck estimation only when you are pretty good at the RC. You can use CVBJ to practice this, but a friend of mine sent me 10 actual casino-used decks and there is nothing like it. I made a discard tray and painted a scale in its border to assist me in my estimation. For me, it is MUCH better than any software. But, of course, software can drill you much faster and tell you if you are correct or not, so use software too by all means!
6 - Then comes the Math part. Or does it? In theory, you need to divide the RC by your estimate of decks remaining to get the TC, but in practice, by using different rounding techniques and, depending on your bet ramp, you make very feel calculations on average per shoe. And they are not real calculations most of the time, it is more like using a look up table. There is a lot with respect to true counting and I am still learning it just like you, so I won't extend myself anymore. There are a few nice threads on deck estimation and TC calculation in this forum you could look at. My main concern here is to give you my humble opinion on the order you should structure your studies.
7 - Then, and only then, you will be able to know how much you should bet, because the amount you bet should be proportional to your advantage, thus, your TC. There are plenty of good sources for you to define your bet ramp, but nothing like CVCX and CVData in my opinion. Then it will be (hopefully) natural for you to dive into money management because an optimal bet ramp is only optimal when it considers your financial situation (your BJ bankroll, your risk preferences, your objectives, etc...). Again, CV will be of wonderful help to you, but you should read other sources as well (there is a fantastic chapter on Risk of Ruin in BJA3, but almost every good BJ book explain at least the basics).
8 - Well, now that you area able to estimate with some precision the TC and know how to bet accordingly, AND ONLY NOW, is when I sincerely think it makes sense to learn indices. Please, do as you feel better about it, let's not go back to this old argument, OK? But I just want to try to show you, from a beginner perspective, that you already have A LOT to worry about up to this point and the truth is that what you have been learning up to now gives you the majority of your advantage, especially in shoe games. So that's why most of who participated in this thread were a little surprised by you not counting yet, since your OP was about inconsistencies among different sources of indices!! Of course, you could always flat bet a double deck game and only apply indices and you could gain a slight advantage, but you would be forfeiting the majority of your profit potential. So now is the time I humbly believe you should be aiming to learn indices. I have never dedicated myself to them, but just by playing around with CV and making bet ramp simulations, I naturally memorized almost all the Sweet 16 and Fab 4, so, again, I would advise you to focus on the betting aspect of the game first, because then it will be much more natural to apply index deviations.
9 - Then comes camouflage, casino comportment, etc... things I am no one to tell you about, but that I know makes an important part of card counting (and this post is becoming HUGE!!).
Well, Night_Train, I hope I have not bored you to death by this long e-mail. I just wanted to give you a beginner's perspective on things. And, I must confess, if people like Tthree, Don, and many other veterans that posted in this thread, stop what they are doing and do their best to help a TOTAL beginner stranger like you and me... I believe I am obliged to do so as well, even if just for the reason of saving their time when explaining the very basics.
I make Metronome's words my own; WELCOME ABOARD! (you won't regret it)
Best cards!
Skull.
“Life's true face is the skull.” - Nikos Kazantzakis
Bookmarks