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Thread: Is it worth using 1/4 decks estimation in 4-8 deck games?

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  1. #1


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    Quote Originally Posted by D.A. View Post
    You want to know the TC exactly for index plays. Otherwise you'd be scrambling when a decision pops up. It shouldn't take much effort to know the TC after each round.
    I don't think you need to know it exactly. Borderline index plays can be made incorrectly on occasion with almost no impact on EV. And scrambling isn't always bad -- you can pretend you don't know basic strategy or you're scared of taking the dealer's bust card on your 12 v 2.
    Last edited by Purple Rain; 07-07-2013 at 01:59 PM.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Purple Rain View Post
    I don't think you need to know it exactly. Borderline index plays can be made incorrectly on occasion with almost no impact on EV.
    There's a big difference between 3,4 and 5 like you mentioned previously.

    I guess it comes down to how you approach the game. While it's true being off by small amounts might have only a minimal impact, that's a slippery slope and not something we are comfortable with when we play. It doesn't take that much mental effort to calculate the TC so why settle for anything but the most accurate info you can get? Counting is already a small enough edge.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by D.A. View Post
    There's a big difference between 3,4 and 5 like you mentioned previously.

    I guess it comes down to how you approach the game. While it's true being off by small amounts might have only a minimal impact, that's a slippery slope and not something we are comfortable with when we play. It doesn't take that much mental effort to calculate the TC so why settle for anything but the most accurate info you can get? Counting is already a small enough edge.
    It's a matter of practicality to me. For one, following an exact betting ramp in line with the TC is easier for the eye to detect. Following your ramp less strictly can serve as cover with minimal sacrifices to EV and variance, and it can allow you to focus on more important things -- the count, heat, your act, dealer mispays, ratholing, the speed of the game.

    It's also a matter of skill level -- some people can calculate the TC quicker than others. I avoid calculating it exactly because I can't always do it in time, but I still use it pretty accurately. For example, if the RC is +10 and it's very early in the shoe, I know the TC is closer to 2 than any other whole number. I don't need to think, "There's half a deck in the tray, so 5.5 left, and 10 / 5.5 = 1.8, which rounds to 2." If the RC is +10 and it's very late in the shoe, I don't need to look at the discard tray to know it's time for a max bet.

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