Sun Runner: Bank Roll

[Sun Runner]

> Jusy curious does full kelly imply risk
> neutral.

> I mean, if someone chooses to play full
> kelly (or rather 0.76 kelly in BJ), then
> that means this particular individual is
> risk neutral?

I think full Kelly carries a risk of ruin of approximztely 13%.

Could you explain your definition of full kelly in BJ being ".76" ?

[Parker]

> Jusy curious does full kelly imply risk
> neutral.

> I mean, if someone chooses to play full
> kelly (or rather 0.76 kelly in BJ), then
> that means this particular individual is
> risk neutral?

If you are actually playing true full Kelly, then your risk of ruin is zero, at least in theory, because you are constantly resizing your bets based on your existing bankroll.

However, this is not a practical way to play. Also, if you were losing and downsizing your bets, eventually you would run into table limits and while not technically bankrupt, you would be, for all practical purposes, done.

If you take your bankroll and calculate an optimal full Kelly bet ramp, and then play without any bet resizing, your risk of ruin is approximately 13.5%.

Most people consider this unacceptably high, and elect to play some fraction of Kelly.

[ET Fan]

> Jusy curious does full kelly imply risk
> neutral.

> I mean, if someone chooses to play full
> kelly (or rather 0.76 kelly in BJ), then
> that means this particular individual is
> risk neutral?

As I've heard the term used, "risk neutral" means a person who doesn't care about risk at all. In utility theory (which I'm not a great believer in), it can be proved that a person who doesn't care about risk must maximize his EV at all times. Such a person would bet every penny at his disposal every time he had the slightest advantage. He would be practically certain to go broke very quickly.

A Kelly bettor, on the other hand, is risk averse, as most all rational people are.

ETF

[Sun Runner]

To Ed Tice:
If I gave the impression I was quitting my day job and hitting the road full time, no, far from it.

To Parker:
Replaceable means losing the $5,000 BR and taking 24 months to replace.

The goal is to extract as much as possible -I have never worked comps that hard -I like to be in, out, and down the road. When I walk through in my swimsuit I don't want them hollering "Hey Sun Runner, how's it goin'?"

I am not one that enjoys going to the casino to "pick up a few dollars." I would rather be doing something else. I do enjoy travelling, and going to the casino, thinking I have the opportunity to knock then dead at their own game. I also enjoy the perceived notion that I am doing it right under their nose and they can't see me. But truth be told, at my current level of exposure, I don't think they really care about me being there anyway.

I have been spreading red, learning the game, and looking toward that day when I'm taking out a couple hundred an hour and not $25. bigplayer's post eleswhere just got me to thinking -always a dangerous endeavour.

Session BR -I recognize the possibility of losing a session BR, believe me. It would be a big time bummer. Not because I needed that money but because I hate to lose at anything and I would be out of the game awhile.

Heat. I don't know but that was one variable I set aside for now. I realize I play red -and green is no doubt different. But I play sporadically and in varied (to some degree) locale. I just don't see that as part of the decision tree -yet.

Question: I've never seriously played green before for long periods of time. Spreading $25 to $300 on 6Ds -is that really more difficult heat wise?

To SOTSOG:
With all due respect, I don't equate losing a $5,000 session at BJ and giving a $5,000 gift to charity as a measure of anything. I have done the later, and don't think the former would wreck my brain. It would be a long dull boring wait till the BR was replaced tho.

In summary -I just got to wondering why I'm playing now with the small BR that's in my hand, grinding it out with $60 max bets when I could be playing out of a lifetime BR with $300 max bets and, I think, less risk (lifetime), if I'm willing to go 24 months in between "sessions" once, twice, or three times in my life.

Maybe ET Fan defined it for me .. the ultimate defintion of BR. If I lost my BJ BR tomorrow, life would go on as it does today, I could save another one, and all would still be well in my world -a little boring in some regard until the next BR is accumulated -but life would go on.

SO -I guess I'm back to the original question:

Is playing out of a 15 max bet session BR foolish? And the answer is -that's basically what I do now. Therefore I must trully be afraid of losing that BR. And I think for me, it is because I have expounded to those that know I play that BJ is beatable over the LR; and tapping out for a while would be the ultimate vindication of those detractors that I imagine we all have around us.

Huh. I have met the enemy; and it is me.

Thanks again.

[SammyBoy]

Sun Runner,

I'm in the same situation, where I have a small BR, but it is replenishable. I play at the same stakes as you but would love to be able to move to the green chip level. I look at my current "grind it out" play and realize that everytime I play I get better. I will be a much better player in 2 years than I am right now. I guess what I'm trying to say is: "do you feel confident enough in your current abilities to play green?" At this point I don't feel I am there yet. I'm switching from Hi/Lo to AOII because I play alot of SD and DD. I hope to be a green chipper in the next 6 months, but until I have all the indices and Ace side count mastered I will continue to chip away $10 at a time.

[Sun Runner]

It does depend on many things. For me, it is seeming to make no sense to grind it out IF I'm willing to lose a "session BR" and then wait patiently to accumulate the next one.

When my BR grows to the point that replacing it out of current earnings is not realsitic, THEN should I start managing that BR as if it were my last.

Seems to me.

Well enough of that -again, thanks to all for the input.

[ET Fan]

... 16 years ago, I played at white chip tables. This was in a little shack in the MI upper peninsula. There was no compact with the state or anything. They weren't sure it was legal, but they were going to try it.

If I hadn't had a little luck, the first few months, I surely wouldn't be here posting today.

I remember when they abandoned the $1 tables in favor of $2. TWO DOLLARS! I thought the world had come to an end.

ETF

[SOTSOG]

If I am not mistaken, you haven't quite made the leap from those $2 tables up to the $5 tables yet, right? ;>)

[ET Fan]

Can't even get a SEAT for less for less than $10 any more, without driving two hours plus.

> If I am not mistaken, you haven't quite made
> the leap from those $2 tables up to the $5
> tables yet, right? ;>)