Dancer: "Controlled" roll - Non BJ

[Dancer]

Please excuse my ignorance on this subject. I'll admit, I'm a craps neophyte. I play very occasionally and only for cover purposes.

As this is an "advantage" player site, though, I'm curious as to why we don't see more discussion related to craps.

It would seem pretty easy to determine with statistical certainty if the "controlled" roll pundits do indeed have a mathematical edge. If someone can decrease the frequency of throwing a 7 from 1 in 6 to 1 in 8 (as claimed), wouldn't it be fairly straight forward to record a statistically significant number of rolls and calculate his edge to within a SD or two?

It shouldn't be any more difficult than validating a roulette system.

Has no one ever done this? Or, have the claims already been invalidated?

[Don Schlesinger]

> As this is an "advantage" player
> site, though, I'm curious as to why we don't
> see more discussion related to craps.

Er, maybe because you can't gain an advantage at craps! :-)

> It would seem pretty easy to determine with
> statistical certainty if the
> "controlled" roll pundits do
> indeed have a mathematical edge.

You'd think, huh?

> If someone
> can decrease the frequency of throwing a 7
> from 1 in 6 to 1 in 8 (as claimed), wouldn't
> it be fairly straightforward to record a
> statistically significant number of rolls
> and calculate his edge to within a SD or
> two?

Absolutely.

> It shouldn't be any more difficult than
> validating a roulette system.

Right.

> Has no one ever done this? Or, have the
> claims already been invalidated?

The "rhythmic rollers" crew (Scoblete et al.) have made the claims that they have such ability. I have seen no independent verification of this. It would require that someone watch hours upon hours of their rolling, in their practice room, for example, or live, in a casino environment. Scoblete claims that his gang has such ability.

I remain highly skeptical.

Don

[Fuzzy Math]

> Er, maybe because you can't gain an
> advantage at craps! :-)

> You'd think, huh?

> Absolutely.

> Right.

> The "rhythmic rollers" crew
> (Scoblete et al.) have made the claims that
> they have such ability. I have seen no
> independent verification of this. It would
> require that someone watch hours upon hours
> of their rolling, in their practice room,
> for example, or live, in a casino
> environment. Scoblete claims that his gang
> has such ability.

> I remain highly skeptical.

> Don

The physics behind it is pretty straightforward -- an object rotating in one plane will resist rotation in another plane. So, it would appear quite obvious that the system is legitimate. It's just a matter of whether or not a human being can actually control the dice that well. I tried it a few minutes and found it to be rather difficult.

[Don Schlesinger]

> The physics behind it is pretty
> straightforward -- an object rotating in one
> plane will resist rotation in another plane.

Even after it slams into the back wall, as is the requirement for dice throws??

> So, it would appear quite obvious that the
> system is legitimate.

Speak for yourself. Not obvious to me at all.

> It's just a matter of
> whether or not a human being can actually
> control the dice that well. I tried it a few
> minutes and found it to be rather difficult.

If all it took was a few minutes of practice, then everyone would do it. So, of course you found it difficult. Scoblete says his crew trained for hundreds, if not thousands, of hours.

Don

[Dancer]

> So, it would appear quite obvious that the
> system is legitimate.

If that were the case, why wouldn't these "controlled" rollers welcome independent validation with open arms -- even if the skills were difficult to master? If their claims were proven, they'd certainly sell more books/seminars/videos/etc...

We're not talking about TARGET blackjack or some other unprovable system here. A true edge at dice can be statistically validated rather easily. As Don points out, it would take some time, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility for someone asking the general public to pony up their hard-earned cash.