MJ: Actual results calculator ?

[MJ]

The actual results calculator assumes the counter has enough money to make it to through the end of a certain time period. In short, it works under the premise of an infinite bank.

But what if you wanted to figure out the chance of being ahead a certain # of units after 'x' hours of play have expired, while at the same time working under the assumption that the BR is finite and the counter may tap out?

For example, if the double barrel calculator gives a 10% ROR for 250 hours of play, then the chance of NOT tapping out during the aforementioned period or before reaching the goal is 90%. Now, suppose the Actual Results calculator says there is an 60% chance of being ahead "y" units after 250 hours. If one wishes to factor in the chance of not tapping out and still being ahead "y" units AFTER 250 hours of play, does that mean the probability becomes 90% x 60% = 54%?

Thanks,
MJ

[Norm Wattenberger]

I don't have a calculator for that.

[MJ]

> I don't have a calculator for that.

I know, but wouldn't my logic yield the correct answer?

Simply take the % chance of tapping out given by the double barrier calculator, subtract the difference from 100%, and then multiply the difference by the % from the actual results calculator. This should yield the probability of being ahead 'x' units after 'y' hours taking a finite BR into consideration.

[Norm Wattenberger]

Taking two methodologies that yield estimates and multiplying them together does not make me comfortable.

> I know, but wouldn't my logic yield the correct
> answer?

> Simply take the % chance of tapping out given by the
> double barrier calculator, subtract the difference
> from 100%, and then multiply the difference by the %
> from the actual results calculator. This should yield
> the probability of being ahead 'x' units after 'y'
> hours taking a finite BR into consideration.

[MJ]

> Taking two methodologies that yield estimates and
> multiplying them together does not make me
> comfortable.

I always knew that the ROR and Goal calculators provide estimates, but isn't the Actual results calculator pretty much right on the mark? It is after all, based upon a straight forward calculation which takes EV, actual result, and SD into account. Why do you call this is an estimate? The calculator should be as accurate as the accuracy of these variables. Two out of the three variables are given by the software, the other, your actual result, is dependent on user input.

Even if the AR calculator does only provides an estimate, the user can always run a sim on CVData to figure out the exact chance of tapping out given their situation. They can now multiply the probability of not tapping out by the probability given by the AR calculator. This way, only one of the factors is an estimate. This methodology should provide a pretty sound estimate of Actual result given a finite BR and Time constraint, agreed?

[Norm Wattenberger]

You cannot actually reflect the entire complexity of a game and a betting strategy in two numbers (EV and SD.) Any formula using these two numbers alone is an estimate.

> I always knew that the ROR and Goal calculators
> provide estimates, but isn't the Actual results
> calculator pretty much right on the mark? It is after
> all, based upon a straight forward calculation which
> takes EV, actual result, and SD into account. Why do
> you call this is an estimate? The calculator should be
> as accurate as the accuracy of these variables. Two
> out of the three variables are given by the software,
> the other, your actual result, is dependent on user
> input.

> Even if the AR calculator does only provides an
> estimate, the user can always run a sim on CVData to
> figure out the exact chance of tapping out given their
> situation. They can now multiply the probability of
> not tapping out by the probability given by the AR
> calculator. This way, only one of the factors is an
> estimate. This methodology should provide a pretty
> sound estimate of Actual result given a finite BR and
> Time constraint, agreed?